The Euro 2020 season is currently underway, and of course, football betting at the best bookmaker is something that many men cannot ignore. First and foremost, it is important to understand that football betting is NOT GOOD and NOT LEGAL in Vietnam, and if you become too obsessed with it, the consequences can be very harmful. However, if you consider yourself wise and responsible, and simply want to add more excitement to football matches, is there any strategy that can help you succeed in this field?
Certainly, football betting or any form of gambling is essentially a matter of chance, meaning that we cannot be certain about the outcome. However, there do exist methods that can help you manage risk and increase effectiveness when participating in betting or gambling. One of these methods is the Kelly Criterion.
The Kelly Criterion was invented and published by John Kelly in 1956, and it was later recognized by the gambling community for its potential application in betting. The Kelly Criterion helps players optimize their betting amounts over a long period of time (such as during the Euro tournament) to manage risk and minimize losses. To this day, this criterion has extended beyond the realm of gambling and has even been applied to capital management in financial investments.
The situation here is that during the Euro 2020, you have obtained permission from your spouse to participate in football betting for the entire tournament (lasting over a month) with an initial capital of 10 million VND. The question is, how much money should you bet for each match to achieve the highest effectiveness? The Kelly Criterion can solve this problem with the formula:
W = Win Rate: the probability of you winning the bet
R = Reward Rate: the percentage of the money the bookmaker will pay if you win, also known as the Odds - 1.
For example, in the match between England and Croatia, let's assume the bookmaker sets the handicap at 0.5 for England. This means that England must win by at least one goal for the person who bet on England to win (for example, England wins 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, etc.). The bookmaker specifies that if you bet on England and win the bet, they will pay you 98% of the betting amount (Odds = 1.98). If you bet on Croatia and win, the bookmaker will pay you 94% of the betting amount (Odds = 1.94). In this situation, let's say I bet on the England team, so I already have the first data for the Kelly formula, which is R, my Reward Rate is 98%, equivalent to 0.98.
Now, the missing data is the Win Rate - the likelihood of my bet winning, which is equivalent to the likelihood of the England team winning by a difference of one goal or more. If you simply think of it as playing a red-black game, you can assume the probability is 50/50. Additionally, there are many ways to help you calculate the winning probability, but they are all relative. Some methods that can be used include:
Fundamental analysis: Analyzing factors such as team strength, form, tactics, home advantage, strengths, weaknesses, etc.
Statistical analysis of historical data: Head-to-head history, recent match results, goals scored, ball possession rate, typical playing style, etc.
Analysis based on statistical data from opinions: Check various online news sources and expert opinions, then gather and analyze the average. For example, if you refer to 20 different reputable sources, and 12 of them predict that England will win, your winning rate would be 60%.
Analysis of personal luck data: Use the average win-loss ratio from your most recent 30 betting instances.
Backtest: Repeat the methods you have used but with past matches to see if the results are accurate.
After analyzing, let's assume I have determined that the winning rate for the England team is 55%. It's important to remember that this number is relative because betting itself is still a game of chance. If I were absolutely certain, I would go all-in instead of finding ways to allocate funds. So, I now have the second piece of information, which is W, the winning rate, which is 55%, equivalent to 0.55.
Using these two pieces of information in the Kelly formula mentioned above, I calculate the Kelly % to be 0.09, equivalent to 9%. Therefore, I should allocate 9% of my capital, which is 900,000 VND, to bet on the England team. This would be the optimal amount to bet on this match.
Applying the Kelly criterion over a long period of time will help minimize the risk of losses and allocate funds properly for each bet. However, it's important to understand that there is no perfect method or money management system. Everything is based on relative data, and it cannot eliminate the inherent risks of each investment, especially in games of chance. Therefore, I present these methods to provide you with new knowledge and a fun way to enjoy the vibrant atmosphere of the sport. Most importantly, don't think that you can get rich from betting, and always take responsibility for your decisions to ensure the happiness of your loved ones.
Thank you for taking the time to read my article. I wish you more joy and the ability to build a prosperous life!